The Balanced News

It is like an earth quake is coming on a certain day and we have to go contingency planning as we think of ways to rebuild the city.i The earthquake is known today as Y2K.ii Y2K stands for Year two Kilo or year two thousand.iii Y2K is a computer Bug that unless eliminated could cause havoc around the world.iv
The Y2K problem has been around for twenty to thirty years.v The problem was the product of a simple concept; to save space the 19 was eliminated from the year in programs.vi This turns into trouble when the date changes from 31-12-99 to 010100.vii This will cause problems in calculations, for example in calculating the age of a person born in the year1981, they would be eighteen in 1999, because 99-81 equals 18.viii However in the year 2000 a person born in 1981 would be negative eighty-one years old, because the computer would read it as 00-81, which equals -81.ix Everyone in the technology world was aware of the Y2K problem twenty to thirty years ago.x Programmers ignored the problem because they figured that in twenty or thirty years the programs that they were writing would become obsolete.xi The reason that the programmers wanted to conserve space is because of the fact that in 1963 one megabyte of main frame cost a hundred and seventy-five dollars to lease a month.xii And since two spaces equaled approximately 1 percent of the storage, that would amount to ten megabytes for every gigabyte.xiii So 175 times 10 equals 1,750 a costly sum for the time.xiv However today the cost to buy one megabyte is approximately ten cents and suppliers are still selling outdated material.xv One of the big causes of the Y2K problem is that software and computer companies are still selling many programs that aren’t Y2K safe.xvi The president and CEO of Greenwich Mean Time, a London Based Y2K consulting & Software Company, who is also the adviser to the United Kingdom as well as South Africa; Karl Feilder stated that, “ninety-three percent of personal computers shipped before 1997 will fail in some degree.”xvii Another source confirmed his prediction, but saying that the majority of Macintosh computers should be ok.xviii
The chief technical officer at the Dallas based Object Systems Group, Bruce F. Webster said, “that the problem is not the software it is the embedded chips.”xix This is mainly because they are much harder to fix.xx Embedded chips are used to run factories, Refineries, and many other things.xxi There are approximately twenty-five billion embedded chips in use today.xxii In one off shore oilrig platform there are approximately eight to ten thousand chips.xxiii That brings us to another problem with embedded chip, their location, in Ocean either on a nuclear submarine or in an offshore oilrig, or above our heads in a satellite.xxiv How these chips are protected can cause an even greater problem, they are cast in cement and also in steel.xxv
Y2K may cause many losses in the world that we know. “Ed Yareni a stock market strategist predicts a seventy percent chance of a global recession.”xxvi It will cost 600 billion to fix the problem, which in turn would wipe out the growth earnings.xxvii The problem is also expected to cause one trillion Dollars in litigation costs.xxviii The total price is foreseen as about 1.5 trillion Dollars.xxix Seventy percent of Business in Asia is expected to fail.xxx It is also predicted that two thirds of Chinese business, half of Japanese Business and fifteen percent of United States Businesses will fail.xxxi A test for Y2K at a Hawaiian electric plant proved the problem when the entire system shut down.xxxii The CIA is expecting power to go out upon the arrival of the year 2000.xxxiii “Sherry Burns a CIA computer specialist warned the agencies US employees to put extra blankets on their beds because electricity may go out.”xxxiv Credit cards are another place where the problem is starting to show its face.xxxv Credit Cards can’t be manufactured with an expiration date after the end of 1999.xxxvi Currently certain malfunctions in credit cards are making them unexceptable in some places.xxxvii “The only government agency that is prepared for the Y2K problem is the Bureau of Cemeteries & Graves and that is only because they have always required the four digit date field.”xxxviii The IRS won’t be able to collect taxes and the government won’t be able to send out social security or welfare.xxxix The problems go on and on, scanners, time clocks, cash registers, inventory controls, ATM’s, Banks the list is endless.xl
The way in which systems are integrated requires all the problems to be solved or else a domino effect will arise.xli General Motors relies on one hundred thousand various companies for supplies.xlii General Motors had to shut all of its operations down due to a strike a one of its plants in the spring of 1998, because that was the only plant that produced that part.xliii Towards the end of 1997 the Internet couldn’t deliver e-mail because some bad data caused servers to be down.xliv Ninety percent of all pagers in the United States crashed during the May of 1998 due to the errors of one satellite.xlv
There are several scenarios, in which the Y2K problem could result, see figure 1.xlvi The upper left refers too possibly situation in which problem is isolated and nothing significant occurs.xlvii The upper right quadrant refers to the possible situation in which media hype instills fear into the minds of the people even though the problem is isolated.xlviii “There’s a chance that superstitious people will become frightened by the Millenium causing personal savings rates to jump.xlix This is the small theatre scenario in which people trample one another in order to avoid a fire that is easily exhaustible.l The lower quadrants cover the concept in which the Y2K problem isn’t solved.li The lower left is the ideal situation in which people find harmony with each other and every thing works out.lii The lower right is a much less appealing scenario in which the world is engulfed in blackouts, military is paralyzed and sickly raging rioters burn Los Angeles.liii
Whether or not the problem is fixable, could be a problem in it self because ten percent of all fixes will be faulty.liv Also ten to twenty percent can’t be fixed at all by automated methods due to the complexity of the programs.lv One of the biggest questions in the case of whether or not the Y2K problem is fixable is can we really find all of the sources of the problem.lvi
Involvement of everyone is the key to the strongest chance we have against the Y2K problem.lvii The Federal Government is doing its part; it will shut down nuclear power plants that aren’t in order by mid 1999.lviii The SEC is requiring that companies file public statements detailing their efforts regarding the Y2K problem.lix The government is also doing its part with House Task Force is holding Congressional Subcommittee meetings over the year 2000 problem, to make sure that all areas of the problem are covered, and our Congressman Dennis Kucinich is on the committee. The leaders need to replace secrecy with full disclosure of information.lx “Economists have pointed out that recessions don’t occur in response to widely anticipated events,” this is why we have to make everyone aware of the problem.lxi The leaders of the world also have to push resources together to find the solution to the problem.lxii “The State of New York’s Governor in the September of 1997 banded all information technology products to minimize the 2000 problem for New York City.”lxiii Businesses in the United States are doing their part as well; ninety-eight percent of businesses have contingency plans.lxiv See attachment 2 for more details on the sample contingency plan the government is proposing to businesses. The Small communities also have a responsibility to develop contingency plans.lxv Each community must figure out plans for the loss of utilities, food, safety, as well as health care.lxvi The work shouldn’t stop there everyone should get involved, including you.lxvii You the individual can help stop the problem of unawareness of the problem, by hosting discussion groups with friends and associates.lxviii You have to make people realize that the problem isn’t going to cure it self, the Bill Gates isn’t going to whip up his magic potion.lxix You can visit Y2K current News at www.year2000.com or contact World Future Society Web at www.wfs.org.lxx Or you could give your local congressman a call and see what they are doing and see where you could help out. There is also a listing of web sites on pages 17-18 of attachment 2.
Our best tool for uncovering opportunities lies in Pareto’s well know rule of governing human behavior- that eighty percent of the benefit from any collection of activities is generated by only twenty percent of those activities. The other activities are just plan inefficient. The trick is to figure out which twenty percent mater.lxxi
While looking for the problem we might be able to get rid of some of the dust, like the DASD, also know as the dead, inactive application & data shelves worthless documents that take up space.lxxii The hunting for the Y2K problem might lead them to the problem dead, active applications, applications that are orphan because they have no real use.lxxiii Another problem that a search might see is over computing, excess waste that can cost companies a lot of money.lxxiv The last problem that they might find and be able to locate would be paying licenses for unused software, another problem that cost companies loads of money.lxxv If companies clean out systems good they could turn this lemon of a problem Y2K into some luscious lemonade.lxxvi
Even though we might not be able to stop the earthquake we might as well take a few steps in its direction to see how we can limit the losses.lxxvii And another important thing is for everyone to help know while we still have all of our resources available to us.lxxviii The last thing to remember is “I don’t think the residual benefits of a self imposed death march justify the journey.”lxxix However we might as well take them.
Kellner-Rogers, Petersen, Wheatley “Y2K Problem: Social Chaos or Social Transformation,” Futurist #22 (October 1998) p 23 ?
Ibid.
Dorschner, John “Zero Hour” Miami Herald Topic, Readers Digest #23(December 1998) p41
Falcioni, John G. “Popes, Monks, Programmers,” Mechanical Engineering #10 (September 1997) p4
Welling, Kathryn M. “Millenium Bug,” Barron’s #1 (July 14, 1997) p28
Herman, David “Millennial Mayhem for Manufacturing,”
Mechanical Engineering #11(September 1997) p62
Epstein, Gene “Wall Street May Be Ready for Year 2000 Problems, But Firms Involved in Transport, Oil and Mines Are Not,” Barron’s #12(August 24, 1998) p40
Ibid.
Ibid.
Ibid.
Epstein, Jeffrey H. “Managing the Year 2000 Problem,” Futurist #7 (May 1998) p19
Allen, Ted “Yeah, But At Least We’re On Top of This Y2K Thing,” Esquire #21 (October 1998) p103
Ibid.
Epstein, J., p19
Epstein, G., p40
Ibid.
Rao, Srikumar S. “Embedded Trouble,” Forbes (September 21,1998) p258
#2 p258
Epstein, Gene, p40
Ibid.
Rao, p258
Ibid.
Kirkpatrick, David “Could Y2K Cause Global Recession?,” Fortune #16 (October 12, 1998) p172 or Dorschner, 44
Welling, p26
Sheridan, John H. “Dealing with Y2K,” Industry Weekly #8 (Jan 5, 1998) p28
Welling, p28
Kellner, p23
Newberry, Jon “Great Y2K Escape” ABA Journal #14 (November 1998) p90 p54
Herman, p62
Kellner, p23
Dorschner, p46
Herman, p62
Ibid.
Welling, p26
Sheridan, p28
Kellner, p23
Kellner, p23 and Allen, p103
Kellner p23
Ibid., p22
Epstein, Gene, p40
Kellner, p22
Ibid.
Ibid., p25
Ibid., p24
Ibid.
Epstein, Gene, p40
Kellner, p25
Ibid. p24
Ibid.
Kress, Michael “Crash Go the System,” Publishers Weekly #6 (August 3, 1998) p58
Welling, p28
Ibid.
Herman, p65
Kellner, p27
Dorschner, p47
Newberry, p90
Kellner p 27
Epstein, Gene p40 and Kellner, p27
Kellner, p26
Kellner, p23
Comarow, Avery “Y2K Doesn’t Bug Them” U.S. New & World Report #20 (November 23, 1998) p54
Kellner, p27
Ibid.
Ibid.
Ibid. and Epstein, Jeff, p19
Allen, p103
Kellner p27-28
Jager, Peter de “Year 2000’s Silver Lining,” Datamation #9 (November 1997) p31
Ibid.
Ibid.
Ibid., p32
Ibid.
Ibid. p31
Kellner p23
Ibid., p27
Jager, p31